Afghan Biographies

Hamid KarzaisĀ“s road map to surrender Afghanistan to the Taliban

Subject Hamid KarzaisĀ“s road map to surrender Afghanistan to the Taliban

Karzai´s  roadmap for the future in 2014 and beyond reduces the concept of reconciliation to something the Taliban see as simply a request to “surrender in the name of peace”. The underlying assumption in Karzai´s mind is that the insurgents would be persuaded to give up violence simply by providing them (perhaps) with jobs as if their fighting was motivated solely by economic interest, rather than being a political struggle. This is one of the reasons the Taliban have categorically spurned the government’s initiatives to make contact and never used a reconciliatory tone towards it. So if the Taliban do not “surrender in the name of peace” Hamid Karzai perhaps believes it is better for the Afghan people that he and his Pashtun cronies will “surrender the south and east of Afghanistan in the name of peace” to the Taliban.

Even two prominent developments will not boost prospects for peace. The first is the Taliban’s narrative of war losing credibility as foreign troops pack up. By the time the fighting season of 2014 unfolded, foreign troops will be scarcely visible on the battlefield. It will be the Afghan National Security Forces on their own fighting on the front lines, Afghan Taliban versus Afghan Government Officials. And the Afghan security forces are not fit for that. And … if there is anything that could make the Taliban’s ‘jihad’ resonate with some beyond 2014, it could be a signed Bilateral Security Agreement. Karzai is aware of all of it, so he is refusing to sign it.

The second development that will not lead to progress in efforts to forge a negotiated end to the war is the new President to be elected in April 2014. The new man in the Arg Palace has no sufficient political or military tools to build confidence with the Taliban and to keep control of law and order in Afghanistan. Neither to break with the policies of the past 12 years that have failed to bring the insurgents to the negotiating table.

We presently watch the hawks on both sides prevail to try to push for outright victory over the other. Karzai will probably be mentioned in the history books as a failed  incompetent leader who allowed the Taliban a comeback and who laid the fundament for a new civil war and a new fundamentalist Government in Afghanistan. He should better organize his exit from Afghanistan to avoid the fate of Najibullah.

Released 2014-01-26